Saturday, April 30, 2011

Approach to Forecasting

There are some approach to forecasting.
1. Carefully consider the objectives of forecasting short period or long period market share or industry as a whole.
2. Select appropriate method of forecasting.
3. Identify the variable which effect the demand of the product.
4. Collect relevant data to represent the variables.
5. Use statistical techniques and decide the most probable relationship between the dependent and independent variables.
6. Prepare the forecast and interpret the results.
7. Forecasts must be revised in case any improved information is available.
8. Forecasts any be made either in unit or in amount of sales. Further it may be made in terms of product groups an then divided into individual products on the basis of past percentages.
9. Forecasts may firstly be made on annual basis and then divided month-wise or week-wise on the basis of available past data.
10. To divide month-wise demand of new product, if the data of other firms are available then these data should be used otherwise a survey relating to problem should be conducted . This method can be used to forecast product-wise sales.

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